THE CONSERVATIVE REVIEW - December 30, 2014

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*-- Jeb Bush emerges as leader of the Republican pack in new poll --*
WASHINGTON (UPI) - Jeb Bush is the leader of the Republican pack in a new poll, with support from 23 percent of respondents, 10 points ahead of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

The CNN/ORC poll was conducted after Bush announced he is "actively exploring" a run for president in 2016. Bush, who has not held elective office since he stepped down as governor of Florida in 2007, also quit his position as an adviser to Barclay's Bank and gave up paid speaking engagements, suggesting he is serious about running.

All candidates other than Bush and Christie, now in his second term as governor of New Jersey, lost support from previous polls. With 13 percent of respondents backing Christie, only 7 percent said they would vote for Dr. Ben Carson, a retired neurosurgeon who has never run for office. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee were tied at 6 percent.

In a November CNN poll, Bush was the leader with 14 percent support, followed by Carson with 11 and Christie and Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., tied at 9 percent. The most recent poll is the first in which a Republican candidate has had a lead larger than the poll's margin of error.

More than two-thirds, 69 percent of respondents, said their main concern is a candidate who can win. Only 29 percent said ideological agreement is more important.

Larry Sabato, a political analyst who teaches at the University of Virginia, analyzed the presidential fields of both parties Dec. 18 in his blog, "Sabato's Crystal Ball." At the time, his "first tier" was empty on the Republican side with Bush, Christie, Paul and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in the second tier.

"If you think there's a GOP frontrunner, then you are probably a staffer or family member of one of the candidates," Sabato wrote. "Until one or more contenders can break a paltry 20 percent or 25 percent in the polls, this tier will be akin to the vacuum in outer space."

That suggests Bush may become the frontrunner in Sabato's next look at the field.

"Bush has to be taken very seriously as a candidate, and we suspect that if he does in fact follow through on a campaign, other potential candidates such as Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, and perhaps many others from the mainstream of the party ... will defer to another member of the First Family of the Republican Party," Sabato said. "That said, Bush may not be able to overcome his surname baggage and the aggressive dislike of much of the Tea Party."

On the Democratic side, Sabato referred to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as the "Anointed One." She had the support of two-thirds of respondents to the CNN poll with Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts far behind in second place with 9 percent.

ORC interviewed 1,011 adults by phone between Dec. 18 and Dec. 21, including 453 Republicans and 469 Democrats. The margin of error for the entire sample is 3 percentage points.

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