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Israel's "Zugzwang"
By Jaffer Ali
Zugzwang definition: a situation in which a player is
limited to moves that cost pieces or have a damaging
positional effect.
More and more folks who analyze the Middle East have in
one way or another noticed that Israel is a failed state.
It seems that whatever moves it makes, they appear to be
losing. Military 'victories' in Lebanon and Gaza where
Israel's kill ratio is more than 100 to 1 is met with a
devastating worldwide PR problem, leading inexorably
towards a growing BDS movement of boycott, divestment and
sanctions. ZUGZWANG!
Israel's 'successful' siege of Gaza starves and suffocates
1.5 million people, but it has not broken the Palestinian
will while becoming an international pariah for its onerous
and odious actions. ZUGZWANG!
Israel's bellicose talk toward Iran only strengthens the
Iranian regime. Two clerics leading the opposition have
recognized the imperial threat to Iran and have recently
acknowledged Ahmadinejad as Iran's leader. ZUGZWANG!
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Israel has so demonized Iran with its rhetoric, the
response of its citizenry is such that one poll showed
that 25% of the population would emigrate if Israel went
to war with Iran or obtained a nuclear weapon. This 25%
added to 10% of Israelis who already vote via absentee
ballots means that effectively, the country is or soon
will be in a full fledged state of de-Zionization.
ZUGZWANG!
Israel is a victim of their own rhetoric.
Back in 2004, the US Pentagon gave Israel 500 special
bunker-busting bombs. The only target for these bombs
was Iran and in fact, Sharon promised the EU and US to
attack Iran. He delayed... obfuscated... and finally
refused to attack. Shortly thereafter he wound up in a
coma where he still languishes. ZUGZWANG!
Israel ostensibly created both the Lebanese and Gaza wars
for one purpose; to delay attacking Iran. Aggressive public
announcements aside, Israel does not want a war with Iran.
Tehran will definitely attack Tel Aviv with missiles should
there be an attack on their country. Israel has already
passed out gas masks in anticipation of what might be.
ZUGZWANG!
Now the US has told Israel "in no uncertain terms" that an
attack on Lebanon or Gaza is not to be waged. [article here
http://bit.ly/5wrkID] While the US states publicly that
they do not wish Israel to attack Iran unilaterally, it is
clear that is exactly what the US wants and the ploy of
delaying an Iranian attack by starting another war with
HAMAS or Hezbollah will not work. ZUGZWANG!
The more Israel suffocates Gaza, the less worldwide Jewry
identifies with its brutality. Zionism is in full retreat
all over the globe. The Israeli narrative of events has
lost its exclusive grip on the world. ZUGZWANG!
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Israel has tried to hide their desperation. They operate
under the rule that to show their weaknesses emboldens
their enemies. This is why Israel encourages the myth of
invincibility. The appearance of strength and power may
serve one purpose, but David and Goliath have switched
roles. The world sees their unbridled use of power against
helpless civilians as a manifest evil. ZUGZWANG!
In 2009, a little known demographic fact entered the
equation. Last year was the first time that the combined
Palestinian Arab population in Israel and occupied
territories surpassed the Jewish population. So what? In
the history of the world, no colonial enterprise ever...
I repeat EVER succeeded without a demographic majority.
ZUGZWANG!
So you may be thinking, "What if Israel simply refuses to
attack Iran?" We are seeing pressure and threats from the
US surface that might only appear as empty rhetoric to
long time observers, but they serve a diplomatic purpose.
US envoy, George Mitchell threatened withholding loan
guarantees and then retracted the threat. In diplomatic
parlance, the message was delivered. ZUGZWANG!
US suggested that "final border status" be negotiated
between Israel and Palestinians. Once again, this is an
anathema to Israel which remains to this day the only
nation without established borders. The US bringing this
up serves notice to Israel, "attack Iran or face the
diplomatic consequences". ZUGZWANG!
It is not easy for casual observers of the Middle East to
notice whatever Israel does, it has lost the tactical and
strategic advantage. This is the classic definition of
zugzwang. Businesses, chess players or nations generally
become extremely averse to making any move when in
zugzwang. Inaction does not eliminate the situation, only
delays the reckoning. Israel's reckoning is coming.
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Jaffer Ali is a Palestinian-American businessman who writes
on business ethics, management theory and political topics.
Follow on Twitter @TwiddleEastNews
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