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Continued Foibles in Iraq and Afghanistan
by Ivan Eland
Antiwar Forum
After Richard Nixon started the U.S. troop drawdown in
Vietnam, the American public thought "problem solved" and
demonstrations on college campuses dissipated. Then it
was disclosed that Nixon, while reducing U.S. forces in
Vietnam, was escalating a parallel war in Cambodia by
bombing and invasion. Antiwar protests resumed with a new
frenzy.
Similarly, for some time now, the American people have been
lulled to sleep concerning the Iraq War by reduced violence
and a similar drawdown of U.S. forces. But about 50,000
U.S. troops remain in Iraq, and ominous signs are appearing
on the horizon. If almost eight months of gridlock after
inconclusive parliamentary elections in March 2010 have
not starkly illustrated the deep-seated and probably catas-
trophic fissures in Iraqi society, the knotting off of the
Awakening movement may very well be a harbinger of the
unfortunate nightmare that could potentially befall the
Iraqis.
Gen. David Petraeus's strategy in Iraq was to step up U.S.
attacks against al-Qaeda there while dividing the Iraqi
Sunni resistance by bribing some of them ? the Awakening ?
to quit fighting the United States and begin fighting their
Sunni al-Qaeda brethren. The Awakening was given money,
guns, and military training and promised jobs in the Iraqi
security forces and government. Petraeus's strategy was an
ingenious way to show things were improving in Iraq in the
short- and medium-term ? read: until George W. Bush got
safely out of office and could say that things were getting
better in Iraq when he left the presidency ? by temporarily
lowering violence. However, the general's funding, arming,
and training of a third rival side in any possible future
civil war has always had the potential to make that
conflict more violent. (The U.S. had previously armed and
trained the Kurdish militias and the Shi'ite-dominated
Iraqi security forces.)
That impending day of reckoning is moving closer. The
problem with bribing people to quit being violent is that
when the benefits stop, they will likely resume their
belligerent activities. As the United States began to
withdraw forces, it handed over responsibility for paying
and nurturing the Sunni Awakening movement to a Shi'ite-
dominated Iraqi government that is hostile to Sunnis. The
results have been unsurprising. Not even half of the
Awakening members have been given promised government
employment, and even those jobs were menial or temporary.
And only 10 percent of the Awakening fighters have been
integrated into the Iraqi security forces. Awakening
members have had their ranks reduced, their pay cut, and
their weapons commandeered. As a result of the Shi'ite
government reneging, a growing number of these Sunnis
fighters have rejoined the insurgency or are helping it
surreptitiously. As a result, violence in Iraq has again
shown signs of increasing. As withdrawing U.S. forces
left many areas, the fractious ethno-sectarian nature
of Iraqi society made such results inevitable.
In Afghanistan, Petraeus, now the commander there, is
unsurprisingly trying the same technique. He has stepped
up attacks against the hard-core Taliban while trying to
lure away lower-level Taliban with incentives ? for
example, promises of job training. Yet the Taliban in
Afghanistan enjoys more support than al-Qaeda did in
Iraq. In contrast to the leadership of al-Qaeda in Iraq,
which was primarily made up of non-Iraqis, the Taliban
is made up of local Afghans. Furthermore, al-Qaeda is
primarily a terrorist organization that has no problem
committing unpopular atrocities against civilians. The
Taliban, however, may be harsh in its punishments, but
it does dispense uncorrupt justice and governance and
provides social services in a poor country. So convert-
ing Afghans to fight against the Taliban is much more
challenging than recruiting Sunnis to attack al-Qaeda
in Iraq. And negotiating with a zealous nationalist
movement, which is winning the war, over the fate of
its own country could very well prove as disappointing
as the outcome of a similar effort in Vietnam.
In both Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States has been
blinded by desired TV images of having the locals sport
blue thumbs ? emphasizing democratic elections versus an
increased appreciation for individual rights. In Iraq,
elections have made things worse by exacerbating ethno-
sectarian fault lines, which have led to political
gridlock and increased violence. In Afghanistan, fraud in
both the presidential and recent parliamentary elections
has and will be exploited by the Taliban to show President
Hamid Karzai's government is hopelessly corrupt.
In short, due to past, present, and likely future U.S.
policies, both countries would be better off without
continuing armed U.S. meddling in their affairs.
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