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THE PROGRESSIVE REVIEW - December 24, 2009
U.S. says nuclear agreement is near
By Mary Beth Sheridan
Washington Post Staff Writer
President Obama said Friday the United States and Russia
are "quite close" to reaching an agreement that would cut
their nuclear stockpiles and allow the world's atomic
giants to keep monitoring each other's arsenals. But they
are unlikely to meet their goal of getting an accord by
year's end.
The new pact would be a successor to the original Strategic
Arms Reduction Treaty, or START, which helped maintain
stability between the countries for nearly two decades
before expiring Dec. 5. Obama hopes the new accord will
show the world the United States is serious about arms
control, as it pushes for tougher action against such
countries as Iran, which may be seeking their own nuclear
weapons.
People close to the negotiations said the White House is
frustrated that the accord has not been concluded. There
appeared to be no breakthrough in Obama's talks Friday
with his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, the latest
high-level meeting aimed at overcoming the final hurdles.
The two were in Copenhagen for the U.N. climate talks.
"We are quite close to an agreement," Obama told reporters,
adding without elaboration that it would be completed "in
a timely fashion."
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Medvedev said that most issues are "almost closed," and
that some "technical details" remain to be ironed out.
"I hope that we will be able to do it in a quite brief
period of time," he said.
Officials from both sides said negotiators will probably
recess in coming days and resume talks in January.
Analysts said the delay might not be significant if the
two sides could quickly wrap up a solid agreement on their
return. But some expressed concern that, having blown two
deadlines, negotiators could feel less urgency.
The Obama administration is hoping a new agreement will
give it enhanced credibility at an international conference
in May to review the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the
1968 pact in which most countries agreed to forsake nuclear
arms in exchange for gradual disarmament by world powers.
U.S. officials want to promote tougher compliance measures
to keep the world's non-proliferation system from unravel-
ing.
But it is not clear whether the Senate would ratify START
by then. The process could take months, especially since
Republican arms-control skeptics have indicated they want
to use the hearings to scrutinize administration plans for
maintaining the country's nuclear weapons and facilities.
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One sticking point in the current START talks involves
procedures to verify missile production, according to
officials and analysts close to the negotiations.
Specifically, the Russians are balking at continuing to
send their U.S. counterparts electronically transmitted
data from their long-range missile tests, they said.
Analysts said it is difficult for U.S. negotiators to give
ground, since verification will be a major issue in the
Senate ratification process.
"As Ronald Reagan said, 'Trust but verify.' The Russians
are obviously interested in a much less intrusive
verification scheme," Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) said.
Russian officials say verification procedures do not need
to be as strict as they were during the Cold War.
"It's time to get rid of excessive suspiciousness,
especially as both presidents have said repeatedly they
want to see a new level of U.S.-Russian relations based
on trust, mutual respect and equality," Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov said in Moscow this week, according
to news agencies.
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The new START treaty is expected to reduce deployed nuclear
warheads used for long-range missions from 2,200 to 1,500
to 1,675 on each side.
Those numbers are significant, but they are only part of a
stockpile of roughly 20,000 nuclear bombs and warheads the
two countries are believed to have. The United States hopes
a new START treaty would soon be followed by talks aimed
at making deeper cuts.
The new START treaty is also expected to slash the number
of long-range vehicles that can carry nuclear warheads
or bombs from 1,600 to about 700 or 800. Those vehicles
include aircraft, intercontinental ballistic missiles and
submarines.
Analysts said some U.S. officials blamed the delay on
Russian negotiators who had held out in recent weeks for
concessions, believing Obama might make them to seal an
arms-control treaty before receiving the Nobel Peace
Prize on Dec. 10.
"They thought Obama would cave. They were wrong," said
Joe Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund, which
supports further disarmament.
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