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THE PROGRESSIVE REVIEW - March 8, 2010
Unemployment Rate Holds at 9.7 Percent
in Spite of Snow Storms
by: Dean Baker
The Center for Economic and Policy Research
Nominal wage growth has averaged just 2.0 percent over the
last quarter.
The unemployment rate remained at 9.7 percent in February
in spite of snow storms that kept millions of people out
of work during the reference week. The establishment survey
showed the economy losing 36,000 jobs with all of the job
loss explained by a drop in construction employment of
64,000. With more normal conditions, it is likely that the
economy would have added a small number of jobs in the
month.
While it is difficult to determine the impact of the
weather, some of the data in the report clearly is
positive. For example, manufacturing showed job growth
(just 1.0 percent) for the second consecutive month. It
seems likely that the plunge in manufacturing employment
is over, although there is no reason to believe there
will be a sharp upturn in hiring any time soon. The
average workweek in manufacturing fell by 0.4 hours, but
this was undoubtedly affected by the weather.
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The employment situation also improved slightly for men,
with the employment to population ratio (EPOP) rising
0.2 percentage points to 66.6 percent. The EPOP for women
was unchanged at 55.8 percent, although it fell 0.3
percentage points for white women, knocking out half the
gain posted in January. The EPOP for black women rose 0.9
percentage points to 55.6 percent. The employment situation
for Hispanics also seems to be improving with the unemploy-
ment rate falling 0.2 percentage points to 12.4 percent.
This is 0.7 percentage points below the recession peak in
October.
Other data in the household survey is ambiguous. There was
a big jump in both labor force participation and EPOPs for
high school graduates in February, but this is a common
seasonal pattern (in spite of the seasonal adjustments to
the data). The number of people involuntarily working part-
time increased by 458,000, reversing more than half of the
sharp drop reported for January. The percentage of unemploy-
ment attributable to workers who voluntarily left their
jobs, a measure of confidence in the labor market, fell by
0.4 percentage points to a level near the low for the down-
turn. However, all the duration measures of unemployment
decreased slightly for the month.
In the establishment data, the only sector showing robust
job growth is employment services. This sector added
49,800 jobs in February. Employment services has now added
307,000 jobs since employment bottomed out last September.
This could be a harbinger of more hiring for permanent
positions; the relationship between temp employment and
permanent employment is not entirely clear. Temp employment
bottomed out in September of 2002, but total employment
did not begin to grow until September of 2003. The job
growth in the sector was never especially robust and
employment in the sector never returned to the peaks hit
before the 2001 recession.
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Most of the job loss in construction was probably real
and not weather related. Non-residential construction
accounted for the overwhelming majority of the job loss,
which is consistent with Commerce Department data showing
a sharp drop in this sector. Publishing lost 7,300 jobs
in February, nearly 1 percent of total employment. Health
care added just 12,000 jobs, the slowest growth since
April 2009. State and local government employment fell
by 25,000 in February. This rate of job loss is likely to
accelerate in future months as state and local deficits
force further cutbacks.
Retail employment was virtually flat, losing 400 jobs.
Restaurants reportedly added 400 jobs, while hotels
lost 2,700 jobs. Employment in these sectors was likely
affected by the weather, both because these businesses
are especially sensitive to weather and also because
workers in these industries are more likely to receive
weekly pay checks. (The employment question asks firms
about the pay period including the 12th of the month. If
the pay period is shorter, then the weather is more likely
to affect total employment.) The weather also shortened
workweeks, with the index for aggregate hours nearing its
low-point for the downturn.
In sum, this report is consistent with an economy that
would not have lost jobs in the month, had it not been
for the weather. However, there is absolutelyno reason
to believe that any substantial uptick in employment is
imminent.
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