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THE PROGRESSIVE REVIEW - October 22, 2009
Public option gains support
CLEAR MAJORITY NOW BACKS PLAN
By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that support for
a government-run health-care plan to compete with private
insurers has rebounded from its summertime lows and wins
clear majority support from the public.
Americans remain sharply divided about the overall packages
moving closer to votes in Congress and President Obama's
leadership on the issue, reflecting the partisan battle
that has raged for months over the administration's top
legislative priority. But sizable majorities back two key
and controversial provisions: both the so-called public
option and a new mandate that would require all Americans
to carry health insurance.
Independents and senior citizens, two groups crucial to
the debate, have warmed to the idea of a public option,
and are particularly supportive if it would be administer-
ed by the states and limited to those without access to
affordable private coverage.
But in a sign of the fragile coalition politics that
influence the negotiations in Congress, Obama's approval
ratings on health-care reform are slipping among his
fellow Democrats even as they are solidifying among
independents and seniors. Among Democrats, strong approval
of his handling of the issue has dropped 15 percentage
points since mid-September.
These numbers underscore the challenges ahead for the
president and Democratic leaders in Congress as they
attempt to maintain support among liberals and moderates
in their own party while continuing to win over at least
a few Republican lawmakers.
Overall, 45 percent of Americans favor the broad outlines
of the proposals now moving in Congress, while 48 percent
are opposed, about the same division that existed in
August, at the height of angry town hall meetings over
health-care reform. Seven in 10 Democrats back the plan,
while almost nine in 10 Republicans oppose it. Independents
divide 52 percent against, 42 percent in favor of the
legislation.
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There are also deep splits in the new poll over whether
the proposed changes would go too far or not far enough
in expanding coverage and controlling costs. Twice as many
see the plan as leaning toward too much government involve-
ment, but since last month there has been a nine-point
increase in the number who say government should be more
involved.
On the issue that has been perhaps the most pronounced
flash point in the national debate, 57 percent of all
Americans now favor a public insurance option, while
40 percent oppose it. Support has risen since mid-August,
when a bare majority, 52 percent, said they favored it.
(In a June Post-ABC poll, support was 62 percent.)
If a public plan were run by the states and available only
to those who lack affordable private options, support for
it jumps to 76 percent. Under those circumstances, even a
majority of Republicans, 56 percent, would be in favor of
it, about double their level of support without such a
limitation.
Fifty-six percent of those polled back a provision mandat-
ing that all Americans buy insurance, either through their
employers or on their own or through Medicare or Medicaid.
That number rises to 71 percent if the government were to
provide subsidies for many lower-income Americans to help
them buy coverage. With those qualifiers, a majority of
Republicans say they support the mandate.
The public option
Faced with a basic choice that soon may confront the
administration and Democratic congressional leaders, a
slim majority of Americans, 51 percent, would prefer a
plan that included some form of government insurance for
people who cannot get affordable private coverage even if
it had no GOP support in Congress. Thirty-seven percent
would rather have a bipartisan plan that did not feature
a public option. Republicans and Democrats are on opposite
sides of this question, while independents prefer a bill
that includes a public option but does not have Republican
support, by 52 percent to 35 percent.
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But if there is clear majority support for the public
option and the mandate, there is broad opposition to one
of the major mechanisms proposed to pay for the bill. The
Senate Finance Committee suggested taxing the most costly
private insurance plans to help offset the costs of extend-
ing coverage to millions more people. Sixty-one percent
oppose the idea, while 35 percent favor it.
Nearly seven in 10 say they think that any health-care
measure would increase the federal budget deficit, a
possible concern for Obama. But nearly half of those who
see the legislation as growing the deficit also say the
increase would be "worth it."
Concerns about the implications for Medicare continue to
cloud the debate. More than twice as many Americans (43
percent to 18 percent) say they think the legislation would
weaken Medicare. Despite the dip in opposition to a health-
care overhaul among seniors, most, 51 percent, still think
reform would hurt the popular program.
Overall, 57 percent approve of the way Obama is handling
his job as president and 40 percent disapprove. While
those numbers have moved only marginally over the past
few months, here, too, are fresh signs of restiveness
among the party faithful: "Strong approval" among liberal
Democrats is down 16 percentage points over the past
month.
On the economy, 50 percent approve of Obama's efforts,
while 48 percent disapprove.
The president receives better marks from all Americans for
his handling of international affairs and his performance
as commander in chief (57 percent approval on each). Slim
majorities also approve of how he is dealing the situation
with Iran and his winning of the Nobel Peace Prize. A
majority disapprove of his work on the federal budget
deficit.
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Partisan divide
Despite those mixed reviews on domestic priorities,
Obama continues to hold a big political advantage over
Republicans.
Poll respondents are evenly divided when asked whether
they have confidence in Obama to make the right decisions
for the country's future, but just 19 percent express
confidence in the Republicans in Congress to do so. Even
among Republicans, only 40 percent express confidence in
the GOP congressional leadership to make good choices.
Only 20 percent of adults identify themselves as
Republicans, little changed in recent months, but still
the lowest single number in Post-ABC polls since 1983.
Political independents continue to make up the largest
group, at 42 percent of respondents; 33 percent call
themselves Democrats.
The wide gap in partisan leanings and the lack of
confidence in the GOP carries into early assessments
of the November 2010 midterm elections: Fifty-one
percent say they would back the Democratic candidate
in their congressional district if the elections were
held now, while 39 percent would vote for the Republican.
Independents split 45 percent for the Democrat, 41 percent
for the Republican.
The poll was conducted by conventional and cellular
telephone from Oct. 15 to 19 among a random sample of
1,004 adults. The margin of sampling error for the full
poll is plus or minus three percentage points.
Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this
report.
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