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THE PROGRESSIVE REVIEW - October 26, 2009
What Might Derail the Iran Nuclear Deal?
by: Robert Marquand
The Christian Science Monitor
Negotiators for President Barack Obama and other powers
may have a breakthrough deal on Iran's nuclear program.
But while they wait for Tehran's Friday answer, some
worry that Iran won't deliver.
Vienna - Wednesday's draft agreement reached here to ship
most of Iran's declared stockpile of low-enriched uranium
(LEU) to Russia to be reprocessed - buying all sides a
year of time - now awaits what Iran's negotiators term a
"thoughtful review" in Tehran.
Iranian officials said the government would make a decision
on the draft on Friday but Western negotiators are worried
about backsliding, including possible attempts by Iran to
send smaller amounts of nuclear material abroad than agreed
to in the draft. French foreign ministry spokesman Bernard
Valero said Thursday that for an agreement to stick, "The
[entire amount of LEU] must leave Iran in one shipment
before the end of the year." The current plan calls for
Russia to enrich Iran's stockpile, and then deliver it to
France for processing into the fuel rods that would run a
small medical reactor in Tehran.
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New sticking points, questions, and problems could easily
emerge from Tehran, which recently admitted to another
clandestine enrichment facility in the shrine city of Qom.
If Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic's supreme
leader, decides he wants to nix the idea there are many
technical exceptions his negotiators could raise - ranging
from the timing of the uranium shipments to the methods,
or amounts, or the manner of the uranium's return for use,
which Iran says it needs to fuel the medical reactor.
Put simply, there's no guarantee a deal negotiated in fits
and starts this week, with few details offered, is done.
"The Obama people are right to keep this on a tight dead-
line," says David Albright, president of the Institute for
Science and International Security in Washington. "If Iran
doesn't meet the Friday deadline, that raises the question
- 'Is this worth it?' They can object to sending all the
LEU (low enriched uranium), or of not getting it all back
at the same time. They are good at delaying."
A Western diplomat who has negotiated with Iran over
its nuclear program in the past is skeptical that the
concessions will be delivered precisely as contained in
the draft. In his experience, Iranian negotiators have
treated agreements not as final but as the launching pad
for fresh negotiations. "They'll ship less uranium to
Russia, or they'll break it up into smaller pieces over
time, or they'll delay the start," he predicts.
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On Thursday the deputy speaker of Iran's parliament said
the negotiations in Vienna between Iran, France, the US
and Russia put Iran in the untenable position of request-
ing help that the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) should already provide, and cast it as a West vs.
Iran issue: "They [the West] tell us: you give us your
3.5 percent enriched uranium and we will give you the
fuel for the reactor. It is not acceptable to us," Mohammad
Reza Bahonar said, adding that the IAEA was "obliged" to
supply the fuel. While the decision is not Mr. Bahonar's
to make, he's an influential hard-line politician and his
comments mirror past statements made by Iranian President
Mahmoud Amhadinejad and other leaders on the issue.'
Sticking Points
Among technical sticking points, perhaps the main one is
whether Iran will agree to send at least 2,600 pounds of
uranium in one bulk shipment. France, backed by the US
and Russia, made this a key requirement in Vienna. Iran
explored sending the uranium in allotments - something
that would allow its existing centrifuge's to supplement
Iran's stockpile during a drawn out process.
Mr. Albright pointed to the recent history of delay. "The
[Vienna] meeting was supposed to be in early October.
Then it was Oct. 19; now they have until Friday. That
could kick it to the weekend since Friday is a holy day.
Then, we hear it is next week."
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Wednesday's IAEA-brokered agreement with Iran has been
kept strictly secret, and described as a "technical"
document - throwing many of the details into the realm
of speculation. Whether Russia will simply toss out
Iran's uranium, preferring to reprocess some of its own
less "contaminated" stockpiles is a question. So are
the methods of the uranium's return: Iran, a state that
is considered a violator of IAEA rules, may be pressed
to only receive back its reprocessed uranium over time,
in allotments gauged to its needs for running the
medical reactor.
In that case France could make fuel rods for Tehran, but
not return it all in bulk, where some of it could be
used for the medical reactor, but some of which could
be used in a secret military program.
A Vienna deal that involves nitty gritty negotiations
between the US and Iran is hoped by the Obama administr-
ation to represent a first "good faith" step by Iran -
at a time when Israel has been threatening military
action should Iran's nuclear program "break out" towards
the capability to build a nuclear weapon. It is also
an example of Obama's effort to multi-lateralize
diplomacy by sharing negotiating burdens with others -
though the US-Iran talks on the sidelines of the meeting,
under the auspices of IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei,
were reportedly sought by Tehran as part of a process
to normalize relations with the US.
US negotiators on Tuesday said privately they had given
Iran every chance to say 'yes' to a deal - including
offers of help to upgrade or improve the safety of the
medical reactor, which was built with US government
help when the country was still ruled by the Shah.
Critics argue Tehran doesn't want normalization but
"legitimization" of its nuclear program.
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