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THE PROGRESSIVE REVIEW - November 4, 2010
Election's Big Result: Expect More Washington Gridlock
by: David Lightman
McClatchy Newspapers
WASHINGTON ? America's voters sent strong signals Tuesday
that they're tired of Washington's endless partisan
bickering, but lawmakers aren't likely to show that they
get the message anytime soon.
Instead, they're bracing for ugly partisan showdowns over
government spending and health care.
Republicans won control Tuesday of the House of
Representatives, and appeared headed toward gains in the
Senate. GOP candidates are adamant they're being elected
to shrink government and roll back major Obama administr-
ation initiatives.
Congressional Democrats ? their moderate ranks dramatically
thinned on Tuesday ? are going to be dominated by liberals
eager for government to do more to ease the nation's
economic pain.
As a result, "We're not about to get what people want,"
said Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for
a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan budget watch-
dog group.
Instead, we're likely to get partisan gridlock.
The confrontational tone was clear from the GOP winners
Tuesday night ? "there's a tea party tidal wave and we're
sending a message," proclaimed Kentucky Senator-elect
Rand Paul.
It was equally clear in the "Pledge to America," the
campaign guidebook from Republican members of the House
of Representatives, which rails against "an arrogant
and out of touch government of self-appointed elites."
The pledge's centerpiece is a punch aimed squarely at the
Democratic gut: It calls for repealing this year's health-
care overhaul, extending permanently all Bush-era tax
cuts and imposing budget discipline by rolling back most
domestic spending to 2008 levels.
President Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress won't go
along. Forecast: gridlock.
That's not what Americans want. By 77 percent to 22
percent, registered voters want Republicans to work with
Obama to get things done rather than stand firm to the
point of gridlock, according to the latest McClatchy-Marist
poll. Nevertheless, gridlock's coming to Congress ? at
least for the opening months.
Still, there are two glimmers of hope that compromise
eventually could emerge. One is that as 2012 elections
loom, lawmakers will remember the voters' clear mandate
from Tuesday.
"Voters are saying they want something different. They're
tired of a lot of the bickering," said Lee Miringoff,
director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which
conducts the McClatchy-Marist poll.
The other catalyst for comity could be unforeseen events
that frighten lawmakers into action. MacGuineas predicted
that the partisan bile would ease if global financial
markets resume reeling, for instance, once they see that
Congress is unable to make serious dents in the budget
deficit or the national debt.
For the moment, though, there's little optimism that
politicians will heed the voters.
The first clash, over extending Bush's tax cuts, will begin
immediately. The tax cuts expire at the end of this year.
Obama and Democrats want to extend only those affecting the
middle class, while Republicans and many centrist Democrats
want to extend all the cuts, including those for the rich.
The impasse should be "relatively simple to resolve," said
Burdett Loomis, professor of political science at the
University of Kansas, Those decisions will be made during
the old Congress' lame-duck session that begins Nov. 15,
when Democrats will still control both chambers and
centrists will still be influential. Still, the debate
will be rancorous and set a tone for battles ahead.
Another sign of the times could be evident next month when
the bipartisan deficit reduction commission issues its
report on Dec. 1. Any recommendation needs 14 of 18
members' consent to be sent to Congress for votes.
The commission was created as a way for warring
politicians, led by out-of-office elder statesmen, to
make tough decisions about changes in Social Security,
Medicare and other political untouchables.
Even if the commission recommends strong steps however,
winning congressional approval of them will be difficult,
as Democrats are sure to resist changes to Social Security
and Republicans to refuse tax hikes. Many lawmakers just
campaigned on those stands, and compromising them now in
the name of long-term fiscal discipline would ask more
sacrifice than most politicians are likely to muster.
"Republicans have been pretty much in lockstep, and will
probably continue to do so," on taxes and other major
pledges, said John Geer, a political science professor at
Vanderbilt University.
Two other consequential tests appear likely to arise early
in 2011.
One will involve fiscal policy. The current debt ceiling
of $14.29 trillion is likely to be exceeded early next
year. Rep. Eric Cantor, R-Va., who's likely to become the
House majority leader, wants to tie any new debt-ceiling
increase to major spending cuts, setting up a showdown
with Democrats over priorities.
The other early 2011 battle line is framed in the GOP's
pledge: "We will immediately take action to repeal this
(new health care) law."
Trouble is, several popular provisions of the new law are
already in effect, and polls show some parts are overwhelm-
ingly popular, even if the law as a whole is not.
Democrats will fight against repeal of their signature
achievement of Obama's first two years, and most have
long opposed the health-care ideas that Republicans want
most, such as damage-limits in medical malpractice laws.
That will leave Republicans to pick away around the edges.
"A lot of people who have health insurance really believe
Obamacare will make their costs go up and quality go down.
I don't think you stop it as much as you start picking at
the things that are unpopular," said Merle Black, professor
of politics & government at Emory University in Atlanta.
If compromises surface, they'll likely show first in the
100-member Senate, where 60 votes are needed to cut off
debate and at least a smidgeon of bipartisanship has long
been essential to success.
Even there, though, experts aren't optimistic. Many veteran
dealmakers are gone ? in the past two years, the Senate
has lost Robert Byrd, Edward Kennedy and Joe Biden, and is
about to lose Chris Dodd, Byron Dorgan and George Voinovich
? legislative craftsmen all.
Those who remain grew more timid in recent months as
voters punished compromisers in party primaries.
Still, said some analysts, maybe new conciliators will
re-emerge over time as 2012 elections get closer and
lawmakers are reminded of the public's loud message
Tuesday.
"People weren't voting for solutions," said Nathan
Gonzales, political editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg
Political Report. "They were expressing their dissatis-
faction."
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