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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Will the Tallest Midget in the Room Please Stand Up!
By Jaffer Ali

There are two possible outcomes: if the result confirms
the hypothesis, then you've made a measurement. If the
result is contrary to the hypothesis, then you've made a
discovery.
? Enrico Fermi

The title of this article may not be the most politically
correct one I've ever used, but it just might be the most
descriptive. In the fifteen years of working in the online
industry, I firmly believe that the industry has beaten a
path to becoming more and more ridiculous.

Why do I say this?

Simply put, we have declared "measurement" as our virtual
pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, a circuitously
foolish pursuit that now has us measuring the metrics.
Ever since Vedics instructed us that we become our attent-
ion, isn't it obvious that we have done exactly that? In
fact, we have taken things to such an illogical extreme
that the old carpenter's rule of "measure twice, cut once"
has become "measure forever, cut never".

Our industry is awash in folks getting out their yardsticks
to measure the tallest metaphorical midget in the room. And
if that midget is just a quarter inch taller than the next
tallest, it's as if we've encountered a veritable Manute
Bol! It's like crediting a behavioral targeting algorithm
for doubling the clickthrough rate on a banner ad. Sounds
great until you realize that you've just increased response
from .1% to .2%. Like I said, the tallest midget.

I participate in a few discussion lists with some very
intellectual and capable industry veterans. But I find
myself becoming increasingly bored with the topics of
discussion. Discourse involving real issues that capture
the sense of wonder and imagination are sacrificed on the
altar of discussions about tools that, by design reveal
our shortcomings instead of our potential.

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"We shape our tools and thereafter our tools shape us."
? Marshall McLuhan

I have two sons taking a course at Bradley University
called "The Big Questions" and we have more relevant and
interesting discussions when we visit at the dinner table
than we could ever hope for if we focused ? as many today
are wont to do ? on reductionist predictive modeling that
is absolutely useless in a chaotic environment.

A case in point is worth mentioning: The US government
(NSA and CIA) has the most powerful computers in the
world. The amount of information amassed is almost mind-
boggling to contemplate. The computer calculates MORE
than 10 TRILLION calculations per second. The goal is
to predict the events in hot spots around the world and
to influence those events in a manner consistent with
perceived national interests (opposed to value-driven
principles).

The Egyptian revolution was not predicted. Nor was the
Tunisian revolution. And the freedom virus spreading across
the entire Middle East has taken the CIA and State Depart-
ment completely by surprise. These "deer in the headlight"
government agencies rely on the same methodologies employed
by online marketers and stock market quantitative analysts.
And whereas these methodologies are great at measuring the
most minute details, to what end are they any reasonable
means? All of the sophisticated tools ...all of the king's
horses and all of the king's men couldn't keep Mubarak on
his throne. Our tools were useless.

You can tell whether a man is clever by his answers.
You can tell whether a man is wise by his questions.
- Naguib Mahfouz, Egyptian author

I guess the above quote gets to what I am trying to say
here. As an industry...as a nation...we are becoming less
wise because we are asking the wrong questions and
measuring the wrong things. We have indeed become tools
of our tools, and we are all shrinking because of it.

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Jaffer Ali is the CEO of Vidsense and PulseTV.com. He can
be reached by sending an email to j. ali (at) Vidsense
(dotcom) or call him at 708-478-4500.

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Questions? Comments? Email me at: quote (at) Quotes2u.com
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