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Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Has Google's Empire Passed Its Zenith?
By Jaffer Ali
"Google's a complete f--ing mess on the inside. A total
f?ing trainwreck. They don't talk to each other. They
fight constantly. A lot is being pissed away. In three
or four years you'll be looking back at this company
and wondering what happened."
-- Peter Kafka quoting a Valley insider
On November 20th 2010, one of the great scholars of the
past 50 years died. His name was Chalmers Johnson. Beloved
by paleoconservatives and progressives alike, this third
generation Navy scholar chronicled the decline of empires
and specifically how and why the American Empire was
crumbling.
Johnson did this through a trilogy of books, the last of
the three entitled Nemesis: The Last Days of the American
Republic. And whereas Johnson doesn't address the Google
situation per se, if we pay attention to the themes he
writes about we will see how and why the Google Empire
may be past its zenith and in decline.
So what are the telltale signs of an empire in decline?
---Hubris---
"There is no safety in unlimited technological hubris"
-- McGeorge Bundy
Google burst onto the scene with the motto "do no evil"
(as opposed to "do only good"). But has that attitude
sustained itself? Witness Eric Schmidt touting the latest
Google algorithm as able to predict what people will
search for before they search for it. Not only is this
pure hubris, it is 100% "bull Schmidt".
One report has Google penetrating 85% of the Internet's
websites. How does Google treat its publishers? Arrogant
disdain could be one way to describe it. Complete opacity
rules the day as it is up to Google alone to decide what
publishers get for their clicks, irrespective of the
percentage split between them. Publishers were content
to settle for Google's imperial droppings as long as the
bills got paid, but most publishers agree that these
droppings have become smaller and smaller -- with only
imperial Google's profits increasing.
As the lone online search superpower (sorry, Bing, you
don't qualify), Google does what it wants when it wants
-- pure imperial hubris.
But Google's haughtiness towards publishers PALES in
comparison to its attitude toward the great unwashed
(that's you and me). Its behavioral targeting imperative
hinges on the complete stalking of our every virtual move.
Every click and search is chronicled in the quest to
monitor our behavior for economic gain.
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And all of this information is a short subpoena away from
being handed over to a government ever more inclined to
monitor and track its own citizens. In fact, the government
abandoned its Carnivore program in favor of having the
private sector do its bidding.
Below is how Eric Schmidt dismisses privacy with all the
casual disregard of Marie Antoinette suggesting that we
eat cake:
"If you have something that you don't want anyone to
know, maybe you shouldn't be doing it in the first place,
but if you really need that kind of privacy, the reality
is that search engines including Google do retain this
information for some time, and it's important, for
example that we are all subject in the United States to
the Patriot Act. It is possible that that information
could be made available to the authorities."
-- Eric Schmidt -- December 2009
Simply stated, Google's view of privacy is a prime example
of unbridled arrogance and a blatant disregard for any-
thing espoused either in the Bill of Rights to our
Constitution or in their own pledge to do no harm.
---Overreach---
It's the inevitable price of imperial arrogance making
leaders feel invulnerable till they no longer are, and
it's too late.
-- Stephen Lendman
Chalmers Johnson outlined how this feeling of invincibility
can catch empires blindly unaware as they spread themselves
too thin. Case in point, US forces are now in over 170
countries, a clear indication of overreach without
commensurate return. In fact, any sane person knows that
the $1 trillion a year we spend on our military, including
billions earmarked to defend Japan, Germany and South
Korea, now generates diminishing returns to the American
Empire.
So where is Google overreaching? How much does Google Maps
make? Google Books? After five years, how much has YouTube
brought to the bottom line? Or how about Google Video for
that matter? Google's attempt at transforming television
advertising can probably now be called a failure as
prospective partners reconsider and bail. Do you think
Gmail makes money? Does anybody even remember Google Wave?
While I am not a rabid Google watcher, one does not need
to look very far to see its tentacles extending in every
online direction, illustrated most recently in its failed
bid to purchase Groupon. By turning down Google's $6
billion offer, Groupon may actually have helped save
Google from itself.
Google's finances will eventually follow its attitude.
One can see Google further alienating publishers to
maintain their lofty profits. One can also see Google
further alienating its audience while pursuing an "all
knowing" algorithm. In the end, it is the attitude or
Gestalt of a company that defines it. In Google's case,
this attitude boils down to the existential difference
between a self-serving pledge to Do No Evil and the
simple promise to Do Only Good.
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Jaffer Ali is the CEO of Vidsense, an online video network
and the CEO of PulseTV.com, an online e-commerce company.
Feel free to contact him at j.ali@Vidsense.com
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Questions? Comments? Email me at: quote (at) Quotes2u.com
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