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Media Perspectives - Thursday, September 2, 2010
Can Eric Schmidt and Marketers Predict Human Behavior?
By Jaffer Ali
"We may regard the present state of the universe as the
effect of its past and the cause of its future. An intellect
which at a certain moment would know all forces that set
nature in motion, and all positions of all items of which
nature is composed, if this intellect were also vast enough
to submit these data to analysis, it would embrace in a
single formula the movements of the greatest bodies of the
universe and those of the tiniest atom; for such an
intellect nothing would be uncertain and the future just
like the past would be present before its eyes."
--Pierre Simon Laplace, A Philosophical Essay on
Probabilities
Laplace wrote the above in 1816. This was well before the
discovery of quantum physics. He and his contemporary
scientists and philosophers thought that their ability to
predict the future was limited by insufficient measurement
tools and the resulting lack of precise information on
which to base their predictions.
Since at the time of Laplace humans were considered little
more than machines, predicting human behavior fell complete-
ly within the realm of observable planetary motion. But
something happened in the early 20th Century: Quantum
Physics. Unfortunately, too many psychologists and too
many marketers never got the memo.
The foundation of quantum physics is "indeterminacy".
Roughly speaking, uncertainty is built into the very
fabric of reality, whether speaking of human behavior
or the position of an electron. The new advances in the
mathematical proofs of Heisenberg and his colleagues did
not deter behavioral psychologists from their determinate,
yet outdated worldviews.
John Watson, known as the father of "Behaviorism", believed
all behavior could be reduced, predicted and controlled
through "proper" conditioning. His disciple, B.F. Skinner
tried to perfect this folly. And let's not forget Sigmund
Freud, who made behavioral reductionism fun and interesting
through his obsession with a single overriding impulse that
he believed controlled us all: SEX.
Of course, there were some who did incorporate a quantum
understanding into their views of human behavior. For
example, Erich Fromm and C.G. Jung rebelled against the
reductionism sweeping their field of study. In fact, Jung,
first an acolyte of Freud, eventually abandoned Freud's
materialistic philosophy.
Now, fast forward to what's happening today in online
marketing circles. Just a cursory glance will reveal that
the place we're now in is nothing more than a return to
Laplace we came from (sorry, Sigmund, but I couldn't
resist)! If we only had MORE data, predicting human
behavior would be a snap, right?
Wrong. Today's marketers are not marketing... they're too
busy dodging customers in the rear view mirror to see the
prospects in the road dead ahead. Once upon a time, market-
ing was all about the art of selling. But art has given
way to specious science promulgated by irrational "experts"
who chase the folly of prediction, seemingly impervious to
the existential flies in the ointment. They strive to be
like Nostradamus when they'd be better served to emulate
David Ogilvy.
One of the leading gurus of this misbegotten practice is
Google's Eric Schmidt. In a recent magazine article he
announced that soon "...we will be able to predict what
someone will search for before they search for it." Of
course our government lends its imprimatur by claiming that
they can catch terrorists before the fact by accumulating
personal data on exactly which sites these suspects visit
and what they search for.
I used to think that those selling predictive technologies
were snake oil salesmen. That's because I found it hard to
swallow the notion that anyone still believed in behavioral
reductionism. It was easier to dismiss them as mere
charlatans... and I said so at every opportunity. As you
might imagine, this seemingly predictable personal behavior
of my own did not endear me to my colleagues (and besides,
the comparison was hardly fair to snake oil salesman and
charlatans).
But I have come to the conclusion that the purveyors of
voodoo behaviorism are neither snake oil salesmen, nor
charlatans, merely intellectual simpletons. And while
this may not score me many points at the next cocktail
party, there is a little more charity, and clarity in
my heart.
Jaffer Ali is the CEO of the Vidsense Video Snack Network.
Jaffer does appreciate good feedback. You can email him at
j.ali@vidsense.com.
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