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THE CONSERVATIVE REVIEW - May 28, 2010

The Gathering Revolt Against Government Spending
by Michael Barone

This month, three members of Congress have been beaten in
their bids for re-election -- a Republican senator from
Utah, a Democratic congressman from West Virginia and a
Republican-turned-Democrat senator from Pennsylvania.
Their records and their curricula vitae are different.
But they all have one thing in common: They are members
of an appropriations committee.

Like most appropriators, they have based much of their
careers on bringing money to their states and districts.
There is an old saying on Capitol Hill that there are
three parties -- Democrats, Republicans and appropriators.
One reason that it has been hard to hold down government
spending is that appropriators of both parties have an
institutional and political interest in spending.

Their defeats are an indication that spending is not
popular this year. So is the decision, shocking to many
Democrats, of House Appropriations Committee Chairman
David Obey to retire after a career of 41 years. Obey
maintains that the vigorous campaign of a young Republican
in his district didn't prompt his decision. But his retire-
ment is evidence that, suddenly this year, pork is not
kosher.

It has long been a maxim of political scientists that
American voters are ideologically conservative and
operationally liberal. That is another way of saying
that they tend to oppose government spending in the
abstract but tend to favor spending on particular
programs. It's another explanation of why the culture
of appropriators continued to thrive after the Republican
takeover of Congress in 1994 and during the eight years
of George W. Bush's presidency.

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In the past, rebellions against fiscal policy have
concentrated on taxes rather than spending. In the 1970s,
when inflation was pushing voters into higher tax brackets,
tax revolts broke out in California and spread east. Ronald
Reagan's tax cuts were popular, but spending cuts did not
follow. Bill Clinton's tax increases led to the Republican
takeover and to tax cuts at both the federal and state
levels, but spending boomed under George W. Bush.

The rebellion against the fiscal policies of the Obama
Democrats, in contrast, is concentrated on spending. The
Tea Party movement began with Rick Santelli's rant in
February 2009, long before the scheduled expiration of
the Bush tax cuts in January 2011.

What we are seeing is a spontaneous rush of previously
inactive citizens into political activity, a movement
symbolized but not limited to the Tea Party movement,
in response to the vast increases in federal spending
that began with the TARP legislation in fall 2008 and
accelerated with the Obama Democrats' stimulus package,
budget and health care bills.

The Tea Party folk are focusing on something real. Federal
spending is rising from about 21 percent to about 25
percent of gross domestic product -- a huge increase in
historic terms -- and the national debt is on a trajectory
to double as a percentage of gross domestic product within
a decade. That is a bigger increase than anything since
World War II.

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Now the political scientists' maxim seems out of date.
The Democrat who won the Pennsylvania 12 special election
opposed the Democrats' health care law and cap-and-trade
bills. The Tea Party-loving Republican who won the Senate
nomination in Kentucky jumped out to a big lead. The defeat
of the three appropriators, who between them have served
76 years in Congress (and whose fathers served another 42),
is the canary that stopped singing in the coal mine.

Will Republicans come forward with a bold plan to roll
back government spending? The natural instinct of
politicians is to avoid anything bold. The British
Conservatives faced this question before the election
this month. When Britain was prosperous, they promised
no cuts at all. When recession hit, they were skittish
about proposing cuts and mostly unspecific when they did.

That may have been why they fell short on May 6 of the
absolute majority they expected. Now they're in a coalition
with the third-party Liberal Democrats, who proposed more
cuts, and the cuts they've announced have been widely
popular. Boldness seems to work where skittishness did
not.

Unlike the Conservatives, Republicans have no elected
party leader. But House Republicans like Eric Cantor,
Kevin McCarthy and Peter Roskam are setting up websites
to solicit voters' proposals for spending cuts, while
Paul Ryan has set out a long-term road map toward fiscal
probity. Worthy first steps. I think voters are demand-
ing a specific plan to roll back Democrats' spending.
Republicans need to supply it.

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