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THE CONSERVATIVE REVIEW - February 23, 2010
Is This How Democracy Ends?
by Pat Buchanan
"I used to think it would take a great financial crisis
to get both parties to the table, but we just had one,"
said G. William Hoagland, a former adviser to the Senate
Republican leadership on fiscal policy.
"These days, I wonder if this country is even governable."
Quoted in The New York Times' lead story, "Party Gridlock
Feeds New Fear of a Debt Crisis," Hoagland nailed it.
America faces a crisis of democracy.
At its heart is a fiscal crisis. After the 2009 deficit
of $1.4 trillion, we are running a 2010 deficit of $1.6
trillion. Trillion-dollar deficits are projected through
the Obama years, be they four or eight.
Long before 2016, however, holders of U.S. public debt
will stop buying Treasury bills or start demanding higher
interest rates to cover the growing risk of a default.
This week, a smoke detector went off. China, in December,
had unloaded $45 billion of its $790 billion in T-bills.
Is Beijing is bailing out?
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To assure the world we are not Greece writ large, the
United States must soon adopt a visible plan for slashing
the deficit.
There are three ways to do it. One is through growth that
increases the tax revenue flowing into the Treasury and
reduces the outflow for safety net programs like unemploy-
ment insurance.
But growth only comes slowly and can take us only so far.
Needed is a combination of big budget cuts and tax hikes.
But the only place one can get budget cuts of the magnitude
required is from the big entitlement programs, Social
Security, Medicare and Medicaid. And the only place to
get revenue of that magnitude is by raising taxes on the
American middle class.
And here is where Barack Obama hits the wall.
Republicans are not going to give him a single vote for
a tax increase. Not only would this violate a commitment
most made to the people who elected them, it would be
politically suicidal. For behind the GOP today, and its
best hope of recapturing Congress in 2010, are the Tea
Party irregulars.
And Tea Partiers now play the role of Red Army commissars
who sat at machine guns behind their own troops to shoot
down any soldier who retreated or ran. Republicans who
sign on to tax hikes cannot go home again.
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Consider: Arlen Specter voted for the Obama stimulus and
faced an immediate primary challenge from Pat Toomey, who
took a 20-point lead, forcing Specter to quit the party to
survive. Popular Gov. Charlie Crist embraced Obama on a
Florida visit and got an immediate primary challenge from
Marco Rubio, who now looks to be the next senator from
Florida.
The Tea Party folks are not into the Gerald Ford politics
of compromise and consensus. They have seen what it
produces: the inexorable growth of Government.
Ex-Sen. Alan Simpson, a Republican and co-chair of Obama's
National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility, has
challenged the patriotism of conservatives who plant their
feet in concrete.
"There isn't a single sitting member of Congress -- not
one -- that doesn't know exactly where we're headed.
...And to use the politics of fear and hate and division
on each other -- we're at a point right now where it
doesn't make a damn whether you're a Democrat or a
Republican, if you've forgotten you're an American."
Simpson is right in his assertion that anti-tax Republicans
went along with George W. Bush's spending spree -- for two
wars, prescription drug benefits under Medicare and No
Child Left Behind.
Where he is mistaken is in suggesting "fear and hate" are
behind the opposition to tax hikes. History, principle and
honest politics explain much of that hostility.
Ronald Reagan, who consented to tax hikes in the 1982 TEFRA
bill, told this writer he was swindled. Promised three
dollars in spending cuts for each dollar in tax increases,
he got the reverse.
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George H.W. Bush won election by pledging: "Read my lips!
No new taxes!" He broke his pledge, leaving many of the
faithful with egg all over their faces. That may have cost
him the presidency.
Principled conservatives are resisting tax hikes because
they believe government has grown too huge for the good
of the country. And if that means putting the beast on a
starvation diet -- no new tax revenue to batten on -- so
be it. Cold turkey time.
Anticipating gains in November, Republicans will not give
Obama any new taxes before then. After November, their
ranks swollen by Tea Party support, they will be even more
intractable.
Where does that leave Obama -- and us?
Later this year or early next, to avoid a debt crisis,
Obama will ask Congress to raise taxes and pare back
entitlement programs.
Republicans will fight the taxes to the last ditch.
Democrats, having lost dozens of colleagues in the November
massacre, will rebel against the cuts in social spending.
And a paralyzed government will drift closer toward the
maelstrom.
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