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THE CONSERVATIVE REVIEW - November 10, 2009
The Myth of '08, Demolished
by Charles Krauthammer
WASHINGTON - Sure, Election Day 2009 will scare moderate
Democrats and make passage of Obamacare more difficult.
Sure, it makes it easier for resurgent Republicans to
raise money and recruit candidates for 2010. But the most
important effect of Tuesday's elections is historical. It
demolishes the great realignment myth of 2008.
In the aftermath of last year's Obama sweep, we heard end-
lessly about its fundamental, revolutionary, transform-
ational nature. How it was ushering in an FDR-like realign-
ment for the 21st century in which new demographics -- most
prominently, rising minorities and the young -- would bury
the GOP far into the future. One book proclaimed "The Death
of Conservatism," while the more modest merely predicted
the terminal decline of the Republican Party into a
regional party of the Deep South or a rump party of
marginalized angry white men.
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This was all ridiculous from the beginning. 2008 was a
historical anomaly. A uniquely charismatic candidate was
running at a time of deep war weariness, with an intensely
unpopular Republican president, against a politically
incompetent opponent, amid the greatest financial collapse
since the Great Depression. And still he won by only seven
points.
Exactly a year later comes the empirical validation of
that skepticism. Virginia -- presumed harbinger of the new
realignment, having gone Democratic in '08 for the first
time in 44 years -- went red again. With a vengeance.
Barack Obama had carried it by six points. The Republican
gubernatorial candidate won by 17 -- a 23-point swing. New
Jersey went from plus 15 Democratic in 2008 to minus 4 in
2009. A 19-point swing.
What happened? The vaunted Obama realignment vanished. In
2009 in Virginia, the black vote was down by 20 percent;
the under-30 vote by 50 percent. And as for independents,
the ultimate prize of any realignment, they bolted. In
both Virginia and New Jersey they'd gone narrowly for
Obama in '08. This year they went Republican by a stagger-
ing 33 points in Virginia and by an equally shocking
30 points in New Jersey.
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White House apologists will say the Virginia Democrat was
weak. If the difference between Bob McDonnell and Creigh
Deeds was so great, how come when the same two men ran
against each other statewide for attorney general four
years ago the race was a virtual dead heat? Which made the
'09 McDonnell-Deeds rematch the closest you get in politics
to a laboratory experiment for measuring the change in
external conditions. Run them against each other again
when it's Obamaism in action and see what happens. What
happened was a Republican landslide.
The Obama coattails of 2008 are gone. The expansion of the
electorate, the excitement of the young, came in uniquely
propitious Democratic circumstances and amid unparalleled
enthusiasm for electing the first African-American
president.
November '08 was one-shot, one-time, never to be replicated.
Nor was November '09 a realignment. It was a return to the
norm -- and definitive confirmation that 2008 was one of
the great flukes in American political history.
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The irony of 2009 is that the anti-Democratic tide overshot
the norm -- deeply blue New Jersey, for example, elected
a Republican governor for the first time in 12 years --
because Democrats so thoroughly misread 2008 and the
mandate they assumed it bestowed. Obama saw himself as
anointed by a watershed victory to remake American life.
Not letting the cup pass from his lips, he declared to
Congress only five weeks after his swearing-in his "New
Foundation" for America -- from remaking the one-sixth of
the American economy that is health care to massive govern-
ment regulation of the economic lifeblood that is energy.
Moreover, the same conventional wisdom that proclaimed the
dawning of a new age last November dismissed the inevitable
popular reaction to Obama's hubristic expansion of govern-
ment, taxation, spending and debt -- the tea party
demonstrators, the town hall protesters -- as a raging
rabble of resentful reactionaries, AstroTurf-phony and Fox
News-deranged.
Some rump. Just last month Gallup found that conservatives
outnumber liberals by 2 to 1 (40 percent to 20 percent) and
even outnumber moderates (at 36 percent). So on Tuesday,
the "rump" rebelled. It's the natural reaction of a center-
right country to a governing party seeking to rush through
a left-wing agenda using temporary majorities created by
the one-shot election of 2008. The misreading of that
election -- and of the mandate it allegedly bestowed -- is
the fundamental cause of the Democratic debacle of 2009.
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