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THE CONSERVATIVE REVIEW - July 9, 2010
The Anatomy of Defeat
by: Tony Blankley
The Afghan War may be the first one we lose primarily
because our civilian leadership did not understand the
effect of its public words on our government, our allies
and our enemy. Throughout the summer and fall of 2009, as
experts were getting more pessimistic about success in
Afghanistan, President Obama began having second thoughts.
He was conflicted between his campaign statement that
Afghanistan was the good and necessary war and his support-
ers' concerns that America not get bogged down in another
unwinnable Vietnam.
Finally, he announced his decision in his December 2009
speech at West Point, where he stated: "(A)s commander in
chief, I have determined that it is in our vital national
interest to send an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to
Afghanistan. After 18 months, our troops will begin to
come home. These are the resources that we need to seize
the initiative, while building the Afghan capacity that
can allow for a responsible transition of our forces out
of Afghanistan.
"... (T)aken together, these additional American and
international troops will allow us to accelerate handing
over responsibility to Afghan forces, and allow us to
begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in
July of 2011. Just as we have done in Iraq, we will
execute this transition responsibly, taking into account
conditions on the ground. We will continue to advise and
assist Afghanistan's security forces to ensure that they
can succeed over the long haul. But it will be clear to
the Afghan government -- and, more importantly, to the
Afghan people -- that they will ultimately be responsible
for their own country."
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So was born a conceptual confusion that is leading us to
defeat in that war. As I and many others observed a few
weeks after the speech:
"The confusions as to intentions, strategies and exit-
timing started immediately after the president's Dec. 1
speech, and have gotten dangerously worse in the ensuing
month. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, Secretary of
State Hillary Rodham Clinton, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs
Adm. Mike Mullen and the top generals all said we were
there to win and the July 2011 exit date was conditional
on whether enough had been accomplished by then. White
House spokesman Robert Gibbs, adviser David Axelrod, Chief
of Staff Rahm Emanuel, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.
and the president all indicated July 2011 was real, and
senior White House sources said 'winning' was not an
objective... Saturday's Washington Post... laid bare the
shockingly different understandings of the Afghan mission
held by the White House and the Pentagon (see 'Civilian,
military planners have different views on new approach to
Afghanistan, Dec. 26.) ... A senior Democratic staff member
in Congress told The Post: 'Is the surge a way of helping
us leave more quickly, or is the timeline a way to help
win support for the surge? Which is the strategy and which
is the head fake? Nobody knows.' A senior officer is quoted
in the article saying they 'don't know if this is all over
in 18 months, or whether this is just a progress report
that leads to minor changes.'"
In the ensuing two-thirds of a year, Mr. Obama and his
senior aides proceeded to publicly characterize President
Karzai and his brother as irredeemably corrupt and
incompetent. Then, when Mr. Karzai started negotiating
with the Taliban, he was invited to the White House for
a heavy dose of warm words and good photo ops. The war
continued to go worse and worse; Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal
(and his aides) inexcusably whined to the press about the
incompetence of the president and his top aides, was
justifiably fired for it and was replaced by Gen. David
H. Petraeus.
CBS, meanwhile, reported: "The Obama administration is
giving different explanations of its July 2011 deadline
for the start of an Afghanistan troop withdrawal, assuring
foreign officials that it applies only to the 30,000 to
35,000 additional U.S. troops that President Barack Obama
is sending next year (2010), but suggesting to Congress
that it covers all U.S. forces.
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"The conflicting versions suggest that the administration
is trying to reassure U.S. allies in the region and else-
where that the U.S. won't cut and run, while telling a
concerned American public, Congress and Democratic Party
that it has an exit strategy."
That last CBS observation gets us to the essence of the
White House's strategic communications blunder. The
president and his men have confused the effect of
"political spin" -- when heard as such -- on domestic
public opinion with its effect when heard as formal
pronouncements of state by enemies, allies and
institutional forces such as the Pentagon.
The American public has become accustomed to discounting
the spin of politicians -- even of presidents. The public
views political spin the way it does professional
wrestling: It's fun to cheer or boo, but don't take it
seriously.
Unfortunately, what the president and his political
operatives meant as a little useful spin for their
domestic base was taken as formal policy by foreign
players -- and they have acted accordingly. Our two
allies in the Afghan War -- Pakistan and Afghanistan
-- having heard the "spin" as policy have irrevocably
taken the strategic action of discounting America as
a reliable force in theater. And, as the president's
strategy relied on gaining and keeping their trust
and loyalty, his strategy has necessarily collapsed.
In the coming months, we should expect many more words
of explanation in Washington and many more failures in
Afghanistan. Alea iacta est (the die is cast).
Even the greatest chef cannot unscramble an egg. Even the
president of the United States cannot unspin his words.
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