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THE CONSERVATIVE REVIEW - January 8, 2010
Nuclear Poker with Iran
by Pat Buchanan
On New Year's Day, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr
Mottaki issued an ultimatum to the West: Accept a swap of
part of our 2 ton stockpile of low-enriched uranium for
your higher-enriched uranium for our U.S.-built reactor,
or we start enriching to 20 percent ourselves.
Though the White House is on the defensive for its initial
nonchalant response to al-Qaida's attempted bombing of a
Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas Day and has a need to
show toughness, to dismiss Iran's proposal out of hand may
be a mistake.
For, bluster aside, this deal appears consistent with the
twin U.S. goals: no nuclear-armed Iran, no war with Iran.
Moreover, Iran's take-it-or-leave-it deal is a variant on
an idea first hatched by the White House -- to offer Iran
uranium that cannot be used for a bomb for the uranium
Iran has been producing.
What would Iran give up? Part of its stockpile of low-
enriched uranium (LEU), which if raised to weapons grade,
would be sufficient for one or two nuclear devices.
What would Iran get? Fuel for a reactor that has been
operating under U.N. safeguard and produces medical
isotopes for the treatment of cancer and thyroid
conditions. The rector's fuel runs out in 2010.
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What would America gain? First, a reduction in Iran's
uranium stockpile. Second, we would confirm that when
we say we have no wish to prevent Iran's peaceful use
of nuclear power, we mean it. Third, we would deal cards
to those in Tehran who argue, "We can do business with
Obama." Finally, the deal might put the United States
and Iran on one of the last exit ramps before crippling
sanctions lead to war.
Indeed, why change a policy that appears to be working?
Consider. Iran is today approaching regime crisis. Scores
of thousands, unintimidated by the Basiji militia, have
returned to the streets. Their demands have escalated from
protesting a corrupt re-election of President Ahmadinejad
to calls for the ouster of the Ayatollah and the overthrow
of the Islamic regime.
While responding with brutality and threats of trials and
death sentences, the regime has yet to go all-out for a
Tiananmen Square solution.
Tehran knows that would destroy any lingering credibility
it has. The Ayatollah Khamenei seems to be hesitant,
uncertain as to whether to appease the resistance or crush
it. For the demonstrators not only represent a huge slice
of Iran's educated young, they are likely to be Iran's
future, if Iran is to have a future as a modern nation.
While Obama has been savaged for not daily declaring
solidarity with the resistance, his reticence may be the
right stance.
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White House declamations would be redundant. No one doubts
whose side America is on.
Second, for President Obama to hail the demonstrators and
denounce the regime would more likely contaminate the
cause of the resistance than advance it.
It would be taken as confirmation of the regime's charge
that what is going on in the streets of Iran's cities is
a replay of the CIA rent-a-mob coup d'etat that took down
nationalist Premier Mohammed Mossadegh in 1953 and put the
Shah on the throne.
And other developments are breaking our way.
According to Sunday's New York Times, Iran's production of
low-enriched uranium at Natanz is running into problems.
The number of operating centrifuges has fallen by 20
percent, to below 4,000. The centrifuges, based on first-
generation technology, are breaking down. Others appear
defective or sabotaged. There are reports that the low-
enriched uranium at Natanz lacks the purity to be highly
enriched.
Also, the U.S. revelation that Iran was constructing a
secret nuclear-enrichment facility at a Revolutionary
Guard base near the holy city of Qum has complicated
Iran's problems. Ahmadinejad opened it to U.N. inspectors,
who found that it was months if not a year away from
completion and capable of housing only 3,000 centrifuges.
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Thus, it is either a small fallback production plant in
case Natanz is bombed, or it was designed to convert the
low-enriched uranium at Natanz into highly enriched
weapons-grade uranium.
Iran's problem now, if it is as hell-bent on building a
bomb as U.S and Israeli politicians insist, is this. Its
major nuclear facilities -- the U.S.-built reactor at
Arak, the uranium production plant at Natanz, the unfinish-
ed Russian nuclear power plant at Bushehr and the unfinish-
ed facility at Qum -- are under U.N. safeguards and
inspections.
If Tehran is as close to a bomb as some insist, it would
have to have an undiscovered uranium-production plant the
size of Natanz and an undiscovered but operational plant
like the one being built in Qum to produce the highly
enriched uranium needed.
If Iran has such facilities, U.S. intelligence agencies
would not be standing by their joint assessment of 2007
that Iran ended its active program for a nuclear weapon
back in 2003.
Right now, the cards are falling our way in Iran. Why toss
in our hand for sanctions that lead -- to where?
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