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THE CONSERVATIVE REVIEW - January 26, 2010
Has Obama Lost White America?
by Pat Buchanan
If Republicans will study the returns from Massachusetts,
then review the returns from Virginia and New Jersey,
light will fall upon the path to victory over Barack
Obama in 2012.
Obama defeated John McCain by winning the black vote 24 to
one, the Hispanic vote two to one and taking a larger share
of the white vote, 44 percent, than did John Kerry or Al
Gore. As the white vote was three-fourths of the national
turnout, Obama coasted to victory.
Now consider Massachusetts. In the 2008 election, no less
than 79 percent of the voters were white, and Obama carried
them by 20 points, winning the state 62 to 36.
How did Scott Brown turn that 26-point deficit into a six-
point victory? By winning the white vote as massively as
did Obama. While there are no exit polls to prove it, we
do have exit polls from Virginia and New Jersey, which
tend to corroborate it.
Bob McDonnell won the Virginia governor's race by 17,
while McCain lost Virginia by six. As McDonnell did equally
poorly with African-Americans, losing the black vote 90 to
nine, while McCain's lost it 92 to eight, what explains his
Virginia landslide?
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The white vote. McDonnell won Virginia's white vote 68 to
32, though his opponent was a downstate Democrat more
conservative than the Northern Virginia candidates he beat
in the primary.
In New Jersey, same story. McCain won 8 percent of the
black vote. Gov. Chris Christie won 8 percent of the black
vote. How did Christie turn a McCain loss of New Jersey by
16 points into a five-point victory?
The white vote. McCain won the white vote in New Jersey 50
to 49, but Christie won the white vote 59 to 34, almost two
to one.
Republicans have won three major races -- two of them
upsets and one a Massachusetts miracle -- because the
white share of the vote in all three rose as a share of
the total vote, and Republicans swept the white vote in
Reagan-like landslides.
What explains the white surge to the GOP?
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First, sinking white support for Obama, seen as ineffectual
in ending the recession and stopping the loss of jobs.
Second, a growing perception that Obama is biased. When
the president blurted that the Cambridge cops and Sgt.
James Crowley "acted stupidly" in arresting black Harvard
professor Henry Louis Gates -- a rush to judgment that
proved wrong -- his support sank in white America and
especially in Massachusetts, where black Gov. Deval
Patrick joined in piling on Crowley. Deval is now in
trouble, too.
Then there was Obama's appointment of Puerto Rican American
Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court. Her militant support
for race and ethnic preferences and her decision to deny
Frank Ricci and the white firefighters of New Haven a
hearing on their case that they were denied promotions they
won in competitive exams because they were white caused 31
GOP senators to vote against her.
While Massachusetts is Democrat over Republican three to
one, Reagan carried the state in 1984 and Hillary Clinton
clobbered Obama in the 2008 primary, though the Kennedys
were in Obama's corner. The Scott Brown Democrats were the
Hillary Democrats were the Reagan Democrats.
But if McDonnell, Christie and Brown could roll up large
enough shares of the white vote to win in three major
states McCain lost, why did McCain lose all three?
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Answer: In 2008, the working and middle class had had a
bellyful of the Bush-McCain Republicans. They were seen
as pro-amnesty for illegal aliens and pro-NAFTA, when
U.S. workers had watched 5 million manufacturing jobs
disappear in a decade -- and reappear in China. They were
willing to give Obama a chance because Obama had persuaded
them by November he was not just another big-spending
utopian liberal.
So what have Obama and Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi been
doing for a year? Crafting a federal takeover of health
care with a vast plan that provides coverage for the
uninsured -- most of whom are minorities -- while sticking
it to Medicare recipients, 80 percent to 90 percent of
whom are white.
Immigrants are 21 percent of the uninsured, but only 7
percent of the population. This means white folks on
Medicare or headed there will see benefits curtailed,
while new arrivals from the Third World, whence almost
all immigrants come, get taxpayer-subsidized health
insurance. Any wonder why all those Tea Party and town-
hall protests seem to be made up of angry white folks?
What the McDonnell, Christie and Brown victories teach is
that the GOP should stop listening to the Wall Street
Journal and start listening to these forgotten Americans.
An end to affirmative action and ethnic preferences, an
end to bailouts of Wall Street bankers, a moratorium on
immigration until unemployment falls to 6 percent, an
industrial policy that creates jobs here and stops
shipping them to China appear a winning hand in 2012.
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