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THE CONSERVATIVE REVIEW - February 2, 2010
Crisis of the Government Party
by Pat Buchanan
President Obama is in a dilemma from which there appears
to be no easy or early escape.
Democrats are the Party of Government. They feed it, and it
feeds them. The larger government grows, the more agencies
that are created, the more bureaucrats who are hired, the
more people who become beneficiaries, the more deeply
entrenched in power the Party of Government becomes.
At the local, state and federal level, there are 19 million
to 20 million government employees. And if one takes only
Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and earned
income tax credits, we are talking of scores of millions
who depend on government checks for the necessities of
their daily life.
These vast armies of voters -- these tens of millions of
government employees and scores of millions of government
beneficiaries -- are the big battalions of the Party of
Government. They provide implacable resistance to any
party that pledges to cut or curtail government. For they
are fighting for their livelihood. And here is where
Obama's dilemma arises.
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The progressives thought that with the takeover of both
houses of Congress by veto-proof Democratic majorities,
and the election of the most progressive of the candidates
in the Democratic primaries save Dennis Kucinich, a new
Progressive Era was at hand.
Another New Deal, another Great Society. And early passage
of a stimulus package of $787 billion, nearly 6 percent
of the entire economy packed into a single bill, seemed
to confirm that happy days were here again.
But, at the same time, the federal takeover of AIG, General
Motors and Chrysler and the bailouts of Fannie, Freddie and
the Wall Street banks were igniting a Perot-style prairie
fire that manifested itself in Tea Party rallies in the
spring and town-hall protests in August.
Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi denounced these folks as "evil-
mongers" engaged in the "un-American" activity of shout-
ing down Democrats -- though, when college radicals do it
to conservatives, it is called "heckling" and the
conservatives are instructed that they "just do not under-
stand the First Amendment."
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Came November, Republican victories in Virginia and New
Jersey showed that the grass-roots rebellion was real and
broad-based. This was confirmed by Scott Brown's astonish-
ing upset in Massachusetts, where a state Obama won by
26 points went Republican by 6 points, with Brown capturing
a Senate seat held by the Kennedy brothers since 1952. Talk
about a fire bell in the night.
Obama's dilemma, evident in his State of the Union, is that
the progressives, who were indispensable to his victories
over Hillary, now feel betrayed, especially with apparent
abandonment of health insurance reform, while conservative
Democrats and independents, who were indispensable in
giving Obama his November victory, are angry and alienated
and disposed to vote Republican to stop what they see as
America's plunge into socialism.
The non-negotiable demands of these two essential elements
of Obama's coalition are in irreconcilable conflict. Obama
tried to mollify both in his address to Congress by
emphasizing aspects of his agenda that appeal to each. Thus
the progressives were promised an end to the "Don't ask,
don't tell" policy on gays in the military, while Tea Party
and town-hall activists got a partial freeze on federal
spending and promises of nuclear power, clean coal and
offshore drilling.
Obama's problem: He can end up satisfying no one and anger-
ing everyone. John McCain has already denounced Obama's
call for open homosexuality in the military, a position
that will resonate with Middle America, while House
Democrats are appalled the Pentagon will be exempt from
budget caps imposed on social programs.
Arthur Laffer has pointed up the burgeoning crisis Obama
and the progressives confront. Today, state, local and
federal government spending consumes 38 percent of the
gross domestic product. Federal spending alone is 27
percent.
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"If you total what the government takes in the income tax,
corporate tax, Social Security taxes, capital gains taxes,"
says Laffer, "all of that adds up to $2.2 trillion in tax
receipts, and they spent $3.5 trillion."
In 2009, we had a deficit of $1.4 trillion, 10 percent of
GDP. The most conservative estimate for this year is a
deficit of $1.35 trillion, more than 9 percent of GDP.
Two questions.
With the public debt surging as a share of GDP, and talk
of a debt default by the United States, how can Obama
create or expand the social programs as progressives
demand? And with the deficit running above 9 percent of
GDP, how -- even if the economy starts to grow -- can you
close this without raising taxes from 18 percent of GDP
to 22 percent or 23 percent? That would be an added tax
hike of $560 billion to $700 billion -- a year.
That kind of hit on the private sector could kill a
recovery, just as Herbert Hoover and FDR did in the early
1930s.
Obama has a problem -- and so do we.
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